L’indebitamento americano a livelli di guardia

 

 

CREDIT BUBBLE OVVERO CRACK DEL DEBITO PRIVATO

Parte prima

The savings rate as a percentage of  Disposable personal income after tax that Americans sock away

Personal Income Reddito Personale

Personal Spending Spese Personali

BEA Bureau of economic Analysis – U.S. department of commerce

 

 

Il rapporto fra l’ indebitamento dei consumatori ed il Pil. Se l´indebitamento delle famiglie americane era pari al 6,6 per cento del Pil nel 2002, nel 2003 è passato all´8 per cento , nel 2004 al 9,5 per cento del Pil e  nel 2005 al 10 per cento del Pil.  Il rapporto fra l’ indebitamento dei consumatori ed i loro redditi è attualmente pari a 100,5 (100.5%) un livello pazzesco in economie rigide come quelle europee, un po’ meno in america ma che in effetti genera preoccupazioni, +10,5% dal 2004  pari a 0,90 (90%) dall’ 85% del  2003  (debito che nel 1982 si attestava intorno al 60% del reddito). Quindi sale  terribilmente la componente dei debiti, +10,5%  nel 2005, spinta per tre quarti dall’incremento di valore della componente immobiliare che fino a d oggi ha controbilanciato tali debiti. E’ il quadro contenuto nel rapporto sulla finanza al consumo redatto dalla Federal Reserve. Il debito delle famiglie e’ passato negli ultimi dieci a 10 trl di dollari circa, da meno di 5trl di dollari  ed  e’ quindi ragionevole che gli americani inizieranno ora  a risparmiare un pochino, sebbene questo maggior risparmio sia negativo per l’economia. E’, questo debito, infatti che , di contro, rappresenta al tempo stesso la mangiatoia per parte del consumo dei cittadini, pari al 70% del PIL, e che alimenta l’economia usa.

Gli americani spendono sempre più e manifestano una forte propensione all’indebitamento: nel 2005 il tasso di risparmio si è assottigliato al punto da passare in negativo -0,5%, per la prima volta dagli anni della Grande Depressione del 1931.  Nel 1984, il tasso di risparmio  era del +10,8%, al netto delle componenti fiscali.

Se aumenta il tasso di risparmio dei cittadini di contro diminuisce il credito al consumo quindi i consumi. Affinché la locomotiva riparta è necessario che i consumatori continuino a spendere, soddisfacendo con un aumento della domanda l’abbondante offerta dell’industria. Nella storia degli Stati Uniti soltanto due volte i risparmi sono risultati negativi, nel 1932 e 1933, vale a dire negli anni della Grande Depressione, quando il sistema economico saltò spingendo gli americani ad attingere alle riserve strategiche per l’alto tasso di disoccupazione e i numerosi fallimenti societari. Le ragioni del nuovo fenomeno appaiono di natura decisamente diversa. Gli americani spendono più di quanto guadagnano, se non molto di più, sulla percezione di un contesto economico in salute e sulla considerazione che gli elevati prezzi delle case – che per molti rappresentano l’investimento per eccellenza – possano continuare a reggere anche in futuro. La Federal Reserve ha provato a raffreddare il settore immobiliare (interessato da fenomeni speculativi) con 17 rialzi di fila fino al 5,25% e, sul medio periodo l’azione della banca centrale dovrebbe produrre gli effetti desiderati, ma a d oggi non si vedono. Gli economisti piu’ autorevoli di wall street mettono poi in guardia dai possibili squilibri per l’uscita dal mondo del lavoro in due o tre anni di 78 milioni di americani, la categoria dei cosiddetti baby boomers che certo non sono la massima espressione di persone nate con una mentalita’ volta al risparmio. Gli americani sembrano avere un feeling naturale per la incapacità al risparmio, e se per gli altri paesi l’idea guida è quella di mettere da parte il denaro per quando si è vecchi, questo non sta accadendo in america

Inoltre sulla base di un dossier Americas Second Harvest – un network di agenzie di beneficenza e assistenza – più di 25 milioni di americani, di cui 9 milioni di bambini e 3 milioni di anziani, visitano ogni anno le mense dei poveri, con un aumento dell’+8% sul 2004.

 

The Personal saving  & The national personal saving rate 

 

The Personal saving  DPI less personal outlays — which weighs current income from wages, salaries, dividends, businesses and government payments against personal outlays spending (PCE, more personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments). It doesn’t take into account borrowed money, income from capital gain of investments, or rising home prices. Increasing wealth comes from rising home values and higher stock prices have supplemented Real disposable incomes and helped fuel spending.   Negative personal saving reflects personal outlays that exceed disposable personal income.  Saving from current income may be near zero or just a little negative when outlays are financed by borrowing (including borrowing financed through credit cards or home equity loans), or are financed by selling investments or other assets, or by using savings from previous periods  

The Personal saving  —  Table 1 / Table 3DPI less personal outlays –   DPI, $9,627.9 billion, Personal outlays  9,711.3 billion  ,so  Because The NSA Total Personal outlays rose to    9,711.3  billion  more than The NSA Total disposable personal income to    $9,627.9 billion , The personal savings still was a negative number for a straight 14 months to -$83.4 billion, Table 1,  compared with a negative -$67.6 billion in the prior month , and so as (even if as )  The Personal outlays rose  by +$79.7 billion more than The disposable personal income that rose by +$63.9 billion ,  and so The other measure of The personal savings   Table 3, ( The monthly change of disposable personal income less The monthly change of Personal outlays ), rose to minus -15.8 billion [ ( $63.9 billion) – ( $79.7 billion) ] from  rose   to plus +6.8 billion [ ( $47.8 billion) – ( $41.0 billion) ] the previous month, and so   The personal savings rate  (as a percentage of disposable personal income) Table 1, rose to minus -0.9% for the 14th straight monthly negative reading  from  rose to minus -0.7% the previous month. 

Consumers spent $42 billion more than they earned last year, the biggest dip in savings since record-keeping began in 1929.   

The  personal saving rate – as a percentage of  disposable personal income after-tax Americans sock awayThe savings rate weighs current income from wages, salaries, dividends, businesses and government payments against spending. It doesn’t take into account borrowed money, income from investments or rising home prices. Increasing wealth from rising home values and higher stock prices has added to incomes and supported spending– which measures the difference between income and outlays spending. Because the increase in spending was more than the gain in incomes, the savings rate , Table 1, rose to minus -0.9% for the 14th straight monthly negative reading  from  rose to minus -0.7% the previous month. A negative rate suggests consumers are dipping into savings to maintain spending. ( -1.8% in august 2005 was the lowest since monthly records began in 1959, The only other negative reading since happened in October 2001, when auto purchases jumped as manufacturers introduced zero- interest loans to promote sales following the terrorist attacks)   

2005 The personal saving rate — Over the last year . Over the last 12 months The personal saving rate in 2005 fell  to -0.5 percent of GDP from +1.8 percent in 2004, it does expect a recovery to the +1.2 percent level in 2006. Well below the 7% average for the last three decades.

For example, if the personal saving rate is just +1.0 percent it indicates that Americans were setting aside 1 cent from each dollar earned. That means that Americans save 1.0 cents of every dollar of disposal income — still very low by historical standard 

Saving from current income may be near zero or just a little negative when outlays are financed by borrowing (including borrowing financed through credit cards or home equity loans), by selling investments or other assets, or by using savings from previous periods. The savings rate doesn’t take into account borrowed money, income from investments, or rising home prices. Increasing wealth from rising home values and higher stock prices have supplemented incomes and helped fuel spending, economists said. The fact that households are saving so little, even with strong growth in personal income, is a potentially troubling development. Increased wealth from rising home values and higher stock prices have supplemented incomes and helped fuel spending  

    • +2.4%          2002
    • +2.1%          2003
    • +1.8%          2004
    • -0.5%          2005

U.S. Personal Income before taxes Current dollar  NSA  Seasonally Adjusted BEA Bureau of economic Analysis – the total income received by individuals –  Personal income before taxes and Not Seasonally Adjusted NSA —  in July , rose +0.5% or increased $60.2 billion, from  rose +0.6% or increased $60.0 billion in the previous month ( a record in September 2005 rose +1.7 percent after December +3.7 percent on a big dividend payout by Microsoft). Wall street expectations were for a +0.5%. Le componenti bonus, stock option and wages and salaries sono incluse nella voce U.S. personal income.  Le componenti bonus, stock option and wages and salaries sono incluse nella voce

U.S. personal income.  High fuel costs and stagnant home prices will probably limit purchases in coming months, while rising incomes help cushion the blow. Spending, which accounts for about two- thirds of the economy, may slow growth enough to keep the good news on inflation coming and allow central bankers to hold interest rates steady.  Some economists aren’t as sanguine about the outlook given the drop in home sales and construction. Economists last week lowered their economic growth forecast for the second half of 2006 to 2 percent, and to 1.8 percent for all of 2007 from previous estimates of 2.3 percent.   If Personal income rises this partly reflects a big pickup in transfer payments from the Medicare health-care program. Consumer spending in the U.S.  in June, rose the smallest gain this year as higher gasoline prices left Americans with less to spend on other goods. The retail price of a gallon of regular-grade gasoline averaged $2.85 in the second quarter, compared with $2.34 the previous three months, according to figures from the Energy Department.   The Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation increased 2.4 percent from the same month last year, the most since September 2002. The rise in the measure of core inflation, which excludes food and energy, may keep pressure on the Fed to extend their two-year run of rate increases.  

Over the last 12 months U.S. Personal Income before taxes Current dollar  NSA  Not Seasonally Adjusted from the same month last year through the last month increased +7.1 percent .     

TABLE 6 Over the last 12 month Personal Income NSA Seasonally Adjusted in 2005 was +5.2 percent .   TABLE 6 Over the last Quarter Personal Income NSA Seasonally Adjusted Labor Statistics, in the 2Q 2006 rose by +6.9% from in the 1Q 2006 rose by +9.4% from in the 4Q 2005 rose by +8.9% from in the 3Q 2006 rose by +4.0% from in the 2Q 2006 rose by +4.6% from in the 1Q 2006 rose by +1.2% .

    • +3.2%           2003
    • +6.2%           2004
    • +5.2%           2005
    • +6.9%  2Q    2006

Private wage and salary disbursements , Wages and salaries, the largest component of personal income, NSA Seasonally Adjusted , Wages and salaries, the largest component of personal income, rose by +0.6% after rose by +0.6% in the prior month .   

Over the last 12 months U.S. Wages and salaries  NSA increased +5.1 percent Over the last Quarter Wages and salaries   The strong gain in Income was led by Wages and salaries   that NSA  Seasonally Adjusted in the 2Q 2006 rose by +7.6% from in the 1Q 2006 rose by +13.3% from in the 4Q 2005 rose by +5.1% from in the 3Q 2006 rose by +8.4% from in the 2Q 2006 rose by +3.3% from in the 1Q 2006 rose by +3.7%

  • +2.6%           2003
  • +5.5%           2004
  • +5.1%           2005

  

Personal income receipts on assets (personal interest income plus personal dividend income) grew by +0.3 percent  after grew by +1.5 percent  in the prior month . Personal income receipts on assets (personal interest income plus personal dividend income) increased $5.7 billion, compared with an increase of $24.0 billion.    

Dividend income increased 1.0 percent in July, the same increase as in June.  

Interest income fell 0.1 percent after increasing 1.7 percent in June   

Supplements to wages and salaries , grew by +0.6 percent after grew by +0.5 percent  in the prior month . The increase reflected an increase of payments for the new Medicare Part D Prescription Drug Plan. Personal income rose partly reflecting a big pickup in transfer payments from the Medicare health-care program. The acceleration reflected payments from the new Medicare Prescription Drug Plan and cost-of-living adjustments to several federal programs.

Personal current taxes , NSA Seasonally Adjusted, Personal current taxes fell by -0.3% or  -$3.7. billion  from  increased +0.9 percent or  +$12.3 billion  in the prior month.  Disposable personal income (DPI) — personal income less personal current taxes — increased $63.9 billion, or 0.7 percent, in July, compared with an increase of $47.8 billion, or 0.5 percent, in June. 

TABLE 6 Over the last Quarter Personal current taxes , NSA Seasonally Adjusted , in the 2Q 2006 rose by +15.2% from in the 1Q 2006 rose by +30.2% from in the 4Q 2005 rose by +11.2% from in the 3Q 2006 rose by +8% from in the 2Q 2006 rose by +12.2% from in the 1Q 2006 rose by +28.2% .

  • +  4.9%           2004
  • +14.6%           2005

Disposable personal income (DPI)  — Current dollar  NSA Not Seasonally Adjusted   — personal income less personal current taxes –or the money left over after taxes, that measuring the portion that consumers put away  after-tax U.S. department of commerce, said  Current dollars  Disposable personal income (DPI) – NSA–  rose +0.7% or increased  +$63.9 billion, to $9,627.9 billion , from  rose +0.5% or increased  +$47.8 billion, to $9,564.0 billion  in the previous month. Personal current taxes decreased $3.7 billion in July, in contrast to an increase of $12.3 billion in June. (08/2005 -1.1% at 8,981.3 billion the lowest since October 2001, The rate fell to a record minus -0.2 percent in the aftermath of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks) .  

Over the last 12 month Disposable Personal Income current dollars  NSA was up +6.0 percent;  DPI NSA Seasonally Adjusted in 2005 was +4.1 percent  

TABLE 6 Over the last Quarter Disposable personal income  NSA Seasonally Adjusted  annualized Labor Statistics,   in the 2Q 2006 rose by +5.7% from in the 1Q 2006 rose by +6.8% from in the 4Q 2005 rose by +8.6% from in the 3Q 2006 rose by +3.5% from in the 2Q 2006 rose by +3.6% from in the 1Q 2006 rose by -1.8% Disposable personal income (DPI) was revised up for 2003, 4.3 percent  

  • +6.4%           2004
  • +4.1%           2005

The fact that households are saving so little, even with growth in Disposable personal income, is a potentially troubling development. Increased wealth from rising home values and higher stock prices have supplemented incomes and helped fuel spending.
 

Real DPI — Real Disposable Personal Income Chained dollar SA Seasonally Adjusted Income received by individuals After-tax and adjusted for inflation — DPI adjusted to remove price changesor the money left over after tax and inflation, or the amount of disposable income that isn’t spent as a percentage of total disposable income,  the amount of personal income available for spending or saving — SA —    rose +0.3% increased +$27.8 billion, to $8,356.5 billion after rose +0.4% increased +$29.6 billion, to $8,328.7 billion in the previous month .    The larger increase in current-dollar DPI than in real DPI always reflects an increase in the PCE implicit price deflator, which is used to deflate DPI.    The larger increase in real DPI than in current-dollar DPI always reflects a decrease in the PCE implicit price deflator, which is used to deflate DPI.  The decrease in the PCE implicit price deflator is largely accounted for by large decreases in energy prices. Some economists were worried by the tepid growth in the real disposable income and said this underlined the need for the

U.S.
economy to lift the pace of employment growth. The fact that households are saving so little, even with strong growth in Disposable personal income, is a potentially troubling development. Increased wealth from rising home values and higher stock prices have supplemented incomes and helped fuel spending  

Over the last 12 months, TABLE 10 Real Disposable Personal Income Chained dollar SA Seasonally Adjusted from the same month a year ago. Over the past twelve months, real disposable personal income has risen +2.5 percent from were +2.6 percent up through the year ended in the prior month  

TABLE 6 Chained (2000) dollars  Real DPI SA Seasonally Adjusted increased +1.2 percent in 2005 .    

TABLE 6 Over the last Quarter Real Disposable personal income  SA Seasonally Adjusted  annualized Labor Statistics, in the 2Q 2006 rose by +1.5% from in the 1Q 2006 rose by +4.6% from in the 4Q 2005 rose by +5.5% from in the 3Q 2006 fell by  -0.6% from in the 2Q 2006 rose by +0.5% from in the 1Q 2006 rose by -4% .

    • +3.6%           2004
    • +1.2%           2005 the smallest increase since 1993.

Personal outlays  &  Personal Consumption Expenditures   Personal outlays — (that is the sum of the  PCE Personal consumption expenditures , more personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments) NSA  Seasonally Adjustedrose +0.8% or increased +$79.7 billion to    9,711.3 billion  , compared with  rose +0.42% or increased +$41.0 billion to    9,631.6 billion   in the prior month .   

Because The NSA Total Personal outlays, rose to    9,711.3 billion  more than The NSA Total disposable personal income to    $9,627.9 billion , The personal savings still was a negative number for a straight 14 months to -$83.4 billion, Table 1, and the  Personal outlays rose  by +$79.7 billion  and The disposable personal income that rose by +$63.9 billion ,  and so The personal savings   Table 3, rose to minus -15.8 billion from  rose   to plus +6.7 billion the previous month,  and so The personal savings rate  (as a percentage of disposable personal income) Table 1, rose to minus -0.9% from  rose to minus -0.7% the previous month.   A negative rate suggests consumer are dipping into savings to maintain spending. The rate has been negative in 12  of the last 14 months.

Negative personal saving reflects personal outlays that exceed disposable personal income.  Saving from current income may be near zero or negative when outlays are financed by borrowing (including borrowing financed through credit cards or home equity loans), by selling investments or other assets, or by using savings from previous periods

Personal consumption expenditures Current dollars   (PCE) or Personal Spending NSA Not Seasonally Adjusted, in July , rose +0.8% or increased +$78.7 billion,  the smallest gain of the year, to    9,353 billion  from  rose +0.4% or increased +$36.6 billion, to    9,274.3 billion  in the prior month. Wall street expectations were for a +0.8%. . High fuel costs and stagnant home prices will probably limit purchases in coming months, while rising incomes help cushion the blow. Spending, which accounts for about two- thirds of the economy, may slow growth enough to keep the good news on inflation coming and allow central bankers to hold interest rates steady. The acceleration in real consumer spending reflected accelerations in durable goods, nondurable goods, and services. Falling  food and energy prices may show a less  number here in the unadjusted for inflation date Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) current dollar  NSA Not Seasonally Adjusted because of it doesn’t calculate these positive falling. Rising food and energy prices can eat  up much of the gain in Adjusted for inflation consumer spending , so that it can be minor that the unadjusted for inflation date because of it does calculate these rising prices. 

TABLE 6 Over the last year Personal consumption expenditures (PCE)  NSA  Seasonally Adjusted , annualized Labor Statistics, increased +6.5 percent in 2005.  

TABLE 6 Over the last Quarter Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) or NSA  Seasonally Adjusted , annualized Labor Statistics, in the 2Q 2006 rose by +6.8% from in the 1Q 2006 rose by +7.0% from in the 4Q 2005 rose by +3.7% from in the 3Q 2006 rose by +8.2% from in the 2Q 2006 rose by +7.5% from in the 1Q 2006  rose by +5.1% .

  • +6.6%           2004
  • +6.5%           2005

Real PCE — Real Personal Consumption Expenditures adjusted to remove price changes  or Chained dollar SA Seasonally Adjusted which are the figures used by the government to calculate gross domestic product, which strips away the rise in energy prices, and which exclude the effects of inventory changes, in July , rose +0.5% from  rose +0.3% in the prior mont.  The less increase of real PCE in contrast to the increase in current-dollar PCE, reflects an increase in the PCE implicit price deflator.     Rising food and energy prices can eat  up much of the gain in Adjusted for inflation consumer spending , so that it can be minor that the unadjusted for inflation date because of it does calculate these rising prices.   Falling  food and energy prices may show a less  number there in the unadjusted for inflation date Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) current dollar  NSA Not Seasonally Adjusted because of it doesn’t calculate these positive falling  

TABLE 10  Over the last 12 months Real Personal Consumption Expenditures or Personal Spending Chained dollar SA Seasonally Adjusted were up   +2.4 percent  from were were up   +2.7 percent  through the year ended in the prior month.

So far this year Real Personal consumption expenditures (PCE)  SA  Seasonally Adjusted , annualized Labor Statistics, Retail sales growth averaged 0.9 percent a month from January through March, the strongest since the third quarter of 2004

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