The delinquency rate & The New foreclosures (I Pignoramenti)

 

 

 

 The delinquency rate & The New foreclosures (I Pignoramenti)

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA)

http://www.mortgagebankers.org/

 

 

 

 

Il numero dei ritardi dei pagamenti delle rate dei mutui oltre i 90 giorni (The delinquency rate) ed il numero di pignoramenti (The New foreclosures) nel terzo trimestre e’ cresciuto ad un livello record mai registrato prima d’ora. Lo rende noto la Mortgage Bankers Association (Mba), l’associazione che riunisce gli operatori Usa che erogano prestiti ipotecari, a conferma delle gravi turbolenze che stanno interessando il comparto immobiliare americano.

 

  • In preoccupante incremento il fenomeno dei ritardi dei pagamenti delle rate dei mutui oltre i 90 giorni (The share of all home loans with Mortgage payments more than 90 days late)  +5,59%, il livello più alto dal 1986, maggiore del +5,12% registrato appena nel trimestre precedente

  • Il numero di pignoramenti (New foreclosures) nel 3Q tocca un nuovo record a 0.78%, dallo 0.65% riportato nei tre mesi precedenti.

  • Nel terzo trimestre i casi di pignoramenti immobiliari – foreclosure filings (including default notices, auction notices and bank repossessions) sono infatti raddoppiati rispetto al 2006,  saliti a 635.159 unità, crescendo del +30% rispetto al secondo trimestre 2007, mentre se si guarda alla serie storica risulta che il 40% delle case è andato perduto. Una famiglia su 196 non riesce più a sostenere la rata del mutuo e perde la casa. In 45 dei 50 Stati americani si é avuto un aumento dei pignoramenti e si arriva a un boom nel Nevada con un caso ogni 61 proprietari di una abitazione. Considerato il numero di mutui ipotecari che dovrà essere rinegoziato a metà del 2008 e il continuo calo delle vendite di immobili e’ lecito aspettarsi che il numero dei pignoramenti rimarrà elevato e che ci sarà un ulteriore aumento per tutto il prossimo anno.

     

 

L’america si trova di fronte a un assurdo numero di mutui subprime e a tasso variabile che sono a rischio default, ed è prevedibile che un gran numero di immobili pignorati finiscano nelle mani delle banche o vengano messi all’asta. Il risultato è che si innesca così una spirale perversa che finisce con aggravare sempre di più la recessione del mercato immobiliare negli Usa. Con il forte aumento dei pignoramenti, sale a dismisura il numero di case messe sul mercato, proprio mentre le operazioni di compravendita e i prezzi stanno crollando. Le case rimaste invendute sono sui massimi da otto anni a questa parte. E potrebbero ancora aumentare visto che le previsioni indicano una contrazione delle transazioni ai minimi da cinque anni, anche perché ora per le famiglie è più difficile ottenere l’erogazione di un mutuo con le banche che, dopo il terremoto di questa estate, pretendono maggiori garanzie creditizie.

 

 

Misure anti-pignoramenti di Bush, aiuto ai proprietari, no a speculatori. I beneficiari del piano di aiuti sui mutui potrebbero toccare le 1,2 milioni di unita’. Il piano di emergenza sui mutui studiato dalla Casa Bianca per contenere l’impatto della crisi dei mutui, ovvero le autorità federali statunitensi e gli istituti specializzati nell’erogazione di prestiti immobiliari negli Usa, prevede il congelamento per 5 anni dei tassi variabili sui mutui ipotecari subprime ( la durata del periodo a ‘tassi bloccati’ sarebbe quindi più lunga rispetto ai due-tre anni indicati ad esempio da Fannie Mae, una delle due agenzie semigovernative che erogano prestiti a tassi agevolati) mirato a limitare il numero dei pignoramenti delle abitazioni.  I mutui subprime oggetto di congelamento quinquennale sarebbero quelli erogati tra il primo gennaio 2005 e il 31 luglio 2007.

 

 

Il programma permettera’ ad oltre 1,2 milioni di famiglie americane di rifinanziarie il proprio mutuo o godere di tassi piu’ vantaggiosi in modo tale da poter continuare a ripagare il debito senza incorrere nel rischio di perdere le proprie abitazioni. Il progetto favorisce la rinegoziazione dei mutui stessi contando sulla partecipazione attiva delle amministrazioni statali e locali che emetterebbero obbligazioni allo scopo di reperire risorse, e di rifinanziarie il proprio mutuo.

 

  • Starebbero riducendo le proprie quote le tre maggiori banche statunitensi coinvolte nel cosidetto “SuperSIV”, il superfondo da circa 80 miliardi di dollari che punta a fronteggiare la gelata del mercato del credito a breve termine seguita dalla crisi dei mutui subprime. Lo scrive il Wall Street Journal che cita fonti vicine alla vicenda, secondo cui al superfondo sarebbero interessate meno banche di quanto previsto e di conseguenza l’ammontare complessivo del fondo ora rischia di essere dimezzato. Citigroup, Bank of America e JPMorgan Chase sono le tre maggiori banche Usa che hanno aderito al superfondo caldeggiato dal segretario al Tesoro Usa, Henry Paulson, per il ‘salvataggio’ dei veicoli d’investimento nel credito strutturato (Siv) e il rilancio del mercato dei ‘commercial paper’.

  • Secondo Fannie Mae, agenzie di prestiti immobiliari, nel 2008 i prezzi delle case subiranno un calo del 5%. Nel 2007 i prezzi delle case subiranno un calo del 3%.

     

     

     

    Marco Montanari

     

     

     

     

     

     

    The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA)

    Dictionary of  Business Terms  and Real Estate Terms

    Delinquency rate


     

     

    The Mortgage Bankers report is based on a survey of 45.4 million loans by mortgage companies, commercial banks, thrifts, credit unions and other financial institutions.

     

    The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) is the national association representing the real estate finance industry, an industry that employs more than 500,000 people in virtually every community in the country (l’associazione che riunisce gli operatori Usa che erogano prestiti ipotecari).  Headquartered in Washington, D.C., the association works to ensure the continued strength of the nation’s residential and commercial real estate markets; to expand homeownership and extend access to affordable housing to all Americans. MBA promotes fair and ethical lending practices and fosters professional excellence among real estate finance employees through a wide range of educational programs and a variety of publications. Its membership of over 3,000 companies includes all elements of real estate finance: mortgage companies, mortgage brokers, commercial banks, thrifts, Wall Street conduits, life insurance companies and others in the mortgage lending field.

     

     

    The Delinquency Rate shows the percentage of firms in a given percentile range that paid in a delinquent manner (90 + days past terms). The delinquency rate statistically, the number of loans with delinquent payments divided by the number of loans held in a portfolio. Sometimes, the rate is based on the total dollar volume of the loans instead of the number. Generally, delinquency is qualified to include only loans where payments are three or more months past due.The delinquency rate does not include loans entering in the process of foreclosure.

    • Example: In January, ABC Savings reported 15 loans with delinquent payments of 3 or more months. Its loan portfolio at the beginning of the month included 300 loans. Its delinquency rate at the end of January was 5%.

     

    The foreclosure filings include default notices, auction notices and bank repossessions. The foreclosure process typically begins when a borrower is more than 90 days late on mortgage payments and the lender files a notice of default. If the borrower doesn’t pay what’s owed, the property goes to auction. If bids don’t reach that amount, the lender takes ownership of the house.

    The number of Americans who fell behind on their mortgage payments rose to a 20-year high in the third quarter as borrowers were unable to refinance or sell their homes. The share of all home loans with payments more than 90 days late, including prime and fixed-rate loans, rose tothe highest since 1986, the Mortgage Bankers Association said in a report today. New foreclosures hit an all-time high for the second consecutive quarter in a survey that goes back to 1972. As conditions in the housing finance market continue to deteriorate, several factors are clear:

     

     

    • This is the first quarter which registers the full combined effects of the seizure of the non conforming securitization market, broad-based home price declines, continued weakness in some regional economies and rate adjustments on monthly payments.  The predictable results are increased delinquency and foreclosure. 

    • In areas where the supply of homes far exceeds demand at current prices, home prices are falling and leading to more foreclosures.  In Michigan and Ohio the problem continues to be the declines in demand due to drops in employment and population that have left empty houses in cities like Cleveland, Detroit and Flint.  In states like California, the problem is excess supply due to speculative over-building and properties coming back onto the market.

    • While subprime ARM delinquencies and foreclosures are climbing in all states, in most states the actual number of loans involved is fairly modest.  For example, the number of subprime ARM foreclosure starts in California during the third quarter equaled the starts in 35 other states combined.

    • While this quarter’s numbers show the highest level of foreclosure starts (on a seasonally adjusted basis) for prime fixed rate mortgages in the last 10 years, that increase is largely due to increases in Florida, Ohio, Michigan and California. In most states the increase in prime fixed rate foreclosure starts is due to borrowers who will fall behind on their payments for the traditional reasons (employment, medical, marital, etc.) but who cannot sell their homes due to market conditions.” 

    • President George W. Bush and U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson plan to announce a proposal today to freeze some subprime mortgages to stop a wave of foreclosures that has cut prices and demand for houses.

    • About 40 percent of lenders have increased standards for their most creditworthy borrowers, according to a Federal Reserve study in October. The surge in foreclosures is expanding the inventory of unsold homes and contributing to the decline in housing demand. As the U.S. housing slump enters its third year, investors are shunning securities backed by mortgages, the top 15 U.S. home builders have lost about $35 billion in market value this year, and the inventory of unsold houses has risen to almost an 11-month supply, the highest in 22 years.

    • Sales of new and previously owned homes probably will drop to 5.09 million next year, 32 percent below the 2005 peak of 7.46 million, according to Freddie Mac, the second largest U.S. mortgage buyer. Sales of previously owned homes fell to a rate of 4.97 million that month, the lowest in a study that goes back to 1999, the National Association of Realtors said Nov. 28. The inventory of single-family homes for sale increased to a 10.5 months’ supply, the highest since July 1985.

    • Housing permits in the U.S. have declined for five consecutive months, falling to a 14-year low of 1.178 million at an annual pace in October, the Commerce Department said in a Nov. 20 report.

    • The U.S. asset-backed commercial paper market has shrunk $394 billion, or 33 percent, since August.

    • Debt maturing in 270 days or less and backed by mortgages, credit-card loans and other holdings fell $23 billion, or 2.8 percent, to a seasonally adjusted $801.2 billion for the week ended Dec. 5, the Federal Reserve in Washington said today.

    • More than 30 percent of borrowers with subprime adjustable- rate mortgages are behind on their payments before their loans reset at a higher rate, according to estimates from analysts at Credit Suisse Group. The bank projects 775,000 homes with $143 billion of mortgage debt will go into foreclosure in the next two years.

     

     

     

     

     

    The total (SA) delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties in the 3Q of 2007 stood at  5,59% of all loans outstanding on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis ( the highest in the MBA survey since 1986), up +0,47% (+47 basis points ) from 5,12% in the 2Q of 2007, and up +0,92% (+92 basis points ) from 4,67% in the 2Q of 2006, according to MBA’s National Delinquency Survey.  On a year over year basis, the SA delinquency rate increased for prime, subprime, and FHA loans and was unchanged for VA loans. The delinquency rate does not include loans entering in the process of foreclosure. The increase in The SA delinquency rate was due to increases for all loan types:

     

    • Prime fixed + Prime ARM delinquency rate loan in the 3Q of 2007 stood at  3,12% of all loans outstanding on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis, so the 3,12% of prime borrowers made their mortgage payments at least 90 days late, up +0,39% (+39 basis points ) from 2,73% in the 2Q of 2007 — On a year over year basis, the SA delinquency rate for Prime fixed + Prime ARM rate loan in the 3Q of 2007 at  3,12% of all loans outstanding on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis ( the highest in the MBA survey since 1986), was up +0,68% (+68 basis points ) from 2,44% in the 2Q of 2006;

    • Subprime fixed + Subprime ARM delinquency rate loan in the 3Q of 2007 stood at  16,31% of all loans outstanding on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis, up +1,49% (+149 basis points ) from 14,82% in the 2Q of 2007 — On a year over year basis, the SA delinquency rate for Subprime fixed + Subprime ARM delinquency rate loan in the 3Q of 2007 at  16,31% of all loans outstanding on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis ( the highest in the MBA survey since 1986), was up +3,75% (+375 basis points ) from 12,56% in the 2Q of 2006;

    • FHA delinquency rate loan  in the 3Q of 2007 stood at  12,92% of all loans outstanding on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis, up +0,34% (+34 basis points ) from 12,58% in the 2Q of 2007 — On a year over year basis, the SA delinquency rate for FHA delinquency rate loan in the 3Q of 2007 at  12,92% of all loans outstanding on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis ( the highest in the MBA survey since 1986), was up +0,12% (+12 basis points ) from 12,8% in the 2Q of 2006

    • VA delinquency rate loan in the 3Q of 2007 stood at  6,58% of all loans outstanding on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis, up +0,43% (+43 basis points ) from 6,15% in the 2Q of 2007 — On a year over year basis, the SA delinquency rate for VA delinquency rate loan in the 3Q of 2007 at  6,58% of all loans outstanding on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis ( the highest in the MBA survey since 1986), was unchanged  0,00% (0 basis points ) from 6,58% in the 2Q of 2006;

     

     

    The NSA seriously delinquency rate, the non-seasonally adjusted percentage of loans that are 90 days or more delinquent, or The rate of foreclosure starts or The rate of loans entering the foreclosure process, was up from both last quarter and from last year. This measure is designed to account for inter-company differences on when a loan enters the foreclosure process. During the 3Q of 2007  the seriously delinquent rate increased for prime, subprime, FHA, and VA loans.

    • The NSA seriously delinquency rate for Prime fixed + Prime ARM  loan (Change from second quarter of 2007) in the 3Q of 2007 stood at  1,31% of all loans outstanding on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis ( the highest in the MBA survey since 1986), up +0,33% (+33 basis points ) from 0,98% in the 2Q of 2007 — On a year over year basis, the NSA seriously delinquency rate, for Prime fixed + Prime ARM loan  in the 3Q of 2007at  1,31% of all loans outstanding on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis, was up +0,52% (+52 basis points ) from 0,79% in the 2Q of 2006;

    • The NSA seriously delinquency rate for Subprime fixed + Subprime ARM loan in the 3Q of 2007 stood at  11,38% of all loans outstanding on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis ( the highest in the MBA survey since 1986), up +2,11% (+211 basis points ) from 9,27% in the 2Q of 2007 — On a year over year basis, The NSA seriously delinquency rate for Subprime fixed + Subprime ARM loan in the 3Q of 2007 at  11,38% of all loans outstanding on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis, was up +4,6% (+460 basis points ) from 6,78% in the 2Q of 2006;

    • The NSA seriously delinquency rate for FHA loan in the 3Q of 2007 stood at  5,54% of all loans outstanding on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis ( the highest in the MBA survey since 1986), up +0,36% (+36 basis points ) from 5,18% in the 2Q of 2007 — On a year over year basis, The NSA seriously delinquency rate for FHA loan in the 3Q of 2007 at  5,54% of all loans outstanding on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis, decreased by -0,12% (-12 basis points ) from 5,66% in the 2Q of 2006;

    • The NSA seriously delinquency rate for VA in the 3Q of 2007 stood at  2,56% of all loans outstanding on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis ( the highest in the MBA survey since 1986), up +0,21% (+21 basis points ) from 2,35% in the 2Q of 2007 — On a year over year basis, The NSA seriously delinquency rate for VA loan in the 3Q of 2007 at  2,56% of all loans outstanding on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis, decreased by -0,08% (-8 basis points ) from 2,64% in the 2Q of 2006. The delinquency rate does not include loans entering in the process of foreclosure

     

     

     

     

    The percentage of loans entering in the foreclosure process in the 3Q of 2007 was 1,69% of all loans outstanding on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis ( the highest in the MBA survey since 1986), up +0,29% (+29 basis points ) from 1,40% in the 2Q of 2007, and up +0,64% (+64 basis points ) from 1,05% in the 2Q of 2006. The percent of loans in the process of foreclosure was at the highest levels ever.

     

     

    The rate of foreclosure started on all types of mortgages in the 3Q of 2007 was 0.78% of all loans outstanding on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis (are at the highest levels ever. ), up +0,13% (+13 basis points ) from 0,65% in the 2Q of 2007, and up +0,32% (+32 basis points ) from 0,46% in the 2Q of 2006, according to MBA’s National Delinquency Survey. The rate of foreclosure starts was at the highest levels ever. The increase in The SA rate of foreclosure starts or in The SA foreclosure starts rate (Change from second quarter of 2007)  was due to increases for all loan types:

     

    • Prime fixed + Prime ARM foreclosure starts rate in the 3Q of 2007 stood at  0,37% of all loans outstanding on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis, up +0,10% (+10 basis points ) from 0,27% in the 2Q of 2007 — On a year over year basis, the SA Prime fixed + Prime ARM foreclosure starts rate in the 3Q of 2007 at 0,37% of all loans outstanding on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis, was up +0,18% (+18 basis points ) from 0,19% in the 2Q of 2006;

    • Subprime fixed + Subprime ARM foreclosure starts rate in the 3Q of 2007 stood at  3,12% of all loans outstanding on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis, up +0,40% (+40 basis points ) from 2,72% in the 2Q of 2007 –On a year over year basis, the SA Subprime fixed + Subprime ARM foreclosure starts rate in the 3Q of 2007 at 3,12% of all loans outstanding on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis, was up +1,30% (+130 basis points ) from 1,82% in the 2Q of 2006 ;

    • Prime fixed rate of foreclosure starts (From the previous quarter) in the 3Q of 2007 was 0.22% of all loans outstanding on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis, up +0,04% (+4 basis points ) from 0,18% in the 2Q of 2007 – Year over year, Since the third quarter of 2006, The foreclosure starts rate for prime fixed loans increased increased by +0,09% (+9 basis points ) to 0.22% from 0.13% in the 3Q of 2006;  

  • Prime ARM rate of foreclosure starts (From the previous quarter) in the 3Q of 2007 was 1.02% of all loans outstanding on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis, up +0,40% (+40 basis points ) from 0,62% in the 2Q of 2007 – Year over year, Since the third quarter of 2006, The foreclosure starts rate for prime ARMs increased by +0,72% (+72 basis points ) to 1.02% from 0.30% in the 3Q of 2006;  

  • Subprime fixed rate of foreclosure starts (From the previous quarter) in the 3Q of 2007 was 1.38% of all loans outstanding on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis, up +0,03% (+3 basis points ) from 1,35% in the 2Q of 2007 – Year over year, Since the third quarter of 2006, The foreclosure starts rate for subprime fixed loans increased by +0,41% (+41 basis points ) to 1.38% from 0.97% in the 3Q of 2006;

  • Subprime ARM rate of foreclosure starts (From the previous quarter) in the 3Q of 2007 was 4.72% of all loans outstanding on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis, up +0,88% (+88 basis points ) from 3,84% in the 2Q of 2007 – Year over year, Since the third quarter of 2006, The foreclosure starts rate for subprime ARMs increased by +2,53% (+253 basis points ) to 4.72% from 2.19% in the 3Q of 2006. As can be seen in the chart, while subprime ARMs only represent 6.8 percent of the loans outstanding, instead they represent 43.0 percent of the foreclosures started during the third quarter

  • FHA rate of foreclosure starts (From the previous quarter) in the 3Q of 2007 was 0.95% of all loans outstanding on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis, up +0,16% (+16 basis points ) from 0,79% in the 2Q of 2007 — On a year over year basis, the SA FHA rate of foreclosure starts  in the 3Q of 2007 at 0,95% of all loans outstanding on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis, was up +0,16% (+16 basis points ) from 0,79% in the 2Q of 2006;

  • VA rate of foreclosure starts  in the 3Q of 2007 stood at  0,39% of all loans outstanding on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis, up +0,02% (+2 basis points ) from 0,37% in the 2Q of 2007 — On a year over year basis, the SA VA rate of foreclosure startsin the 3Q of 2007 at 0,39% of all loans outstanding on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis, was up +0,07% (+7 basis points ) from 0,32% in the 2Q of 2006

 

 

 

The SA foreclosure inventory rate. The increase in The SA foreclosure inventory rate was due to increases for all loan types:

  • Prime fixed + Prime ARM foreclosure inventory rate in the 3Q of 2007 stood at  0,79% of all loans outstanding on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis, up +0,20% (+20 basis points ) from 0,59% in the 2Q of 2007 — On a year over year basis, the SA Prime fixed + Prime ARM foreclosure inventory rate in the 3Q of 2007 at  0,79% of all loans outstanding on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis, was up +0,35% (+35 basis points ) from 0,44% in the 2Q of 2006;

  • Subprime fixed + Subprime ARM foreclosure inventory rate in the 3Q of 2007 stood at  6,89% of all loans outstanding on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis, up +1,37% (+137 basis points ) from 5,52% in the 2Q of 2007 — On a year over year basis, the SA Subprime fixed + Subprime ARM foreclosure inventory rate in the 3Q of 2007 at  6,89% of all loans outstanding on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis, was up +3,00% (+300 basis points ) from 3,89% in the 2Q of 2006;

  • FHA foreclosure inventory rate in the 3Q of 2007 stood at  2,22% of all loans outstanding on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis, up +0,07% (+7 basis points ) from 2,15% in the 2Q of 2007 — On a year over year basis, the SA FHA foreclosure inventory rate in the 3Q of 2007 at  2,22% of all loans outstanding on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis, decreased by -0,06% (-6 basis points ) from 2,28% in the 2Q of 2006; 

  • VA foreclosure inventory rate in the 3Q of 2007 stood at  1,03% of all loans outstanding on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis, up +0,01% (+1 basis points ) from 1,02% in the 2Q of 2007 — On a year over year basis, the SA VA foreclosure inventory rate in the 3Q of 2007 at  1,03% of all loans outstanding on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis, decreased by -0,09% (-9 basis points ) from 1,12% in the 2Q of 2006

 

 

Different Percentage of Outstanding Loans and their different Percentage of Foreclosures Started

 

 

As can be seen in the chart, while subprime ARMs only represent 6.8 percent of the loans outstanding, but they represent 43.0 percent of the foreclosures started during the third quarter.

 

Type……………Percent of Outstanding Loans ….Percent of Foreclosures Started 

 

Prime Fixed …………….63.1%…………………………………….17.6%……………….

Prime ARM ……………..14.5%……………………………………..18.7%……………….

Subprime Fixed ………….6.3%……………………………………..12.0%……………….

Subprime ARM  ……………6.8%…………………………………….43.0%……………….

FHA & VA ………………..9.3%……………………………………….8.7%……………….

 

Regionally:

 

 

Florida and California are the two largest states in terms of mortgages outstanding and are the key drivers of the increase in the national foreclosure rates.  While California and Florida together have 36.4 percent of all of the prime ARM loans in the country, they had 42.4 percent of the nation’s foreclosure starts for prime ARMS.  Similarly, California and Florida together have 28.1 percent of the subprime ARMs and 33.7 percent of foreclosure starts for subprime ARMs.

 

 

Florida, Ohio, Michigan and Indiana have 16.4 percent of the prime fixed loans in the country but 29.3% of the foreclosures started on prime fixed loans,  have 18.9 percent of the subprime fixed rate loans and 26.3 percent of the foreclosure started on  subprime fixed rate loans .

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