U.S. Home Prices:nel 1 trimestre crollo dei prezzi

 

 

Metropolitan Area Existing-Home Prices and State Existing-Home Sales

The Quarterly Reports

The National Association of Realtors said housing prices dropped in two-thirds of U.S. cities in the first three months of the year

May 13, 2008

1Q_2007

http://www.realtor.org/

http://www.census.gov/

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WASHINGTON, May 13, 2008 – One (NE) out of 4th the metropolitan areas in the United States showed rising home prices in the first quarter, with only a small number of jumbo loan originations and higher foreclosures resulting in greatly mixed conditions around the country, according to the latest quarterly survey by the National Association of REALTORS.

The numbers don’t tell the whole story:

  • These are highly unusual results because there were very few jumbo loan originations in the latest quarter, so sales are much slower in high-cost areas, and at the same time foreclosures related to subprime mortgages rose. The continuing crunch in the jumbo loan market that began in August 2007 has disproportionately reduced the number of transactions in higher price ranges.  For buyers who need loans of more than $417,000, mortgage interest rates have been running more than a percentage point higher, and that has been having an obvious impact.  Higher ratios of sales for more moderately priced homes are naturally dampening the national median price as well as the data for some of the more expensive markets.

  • Neighborhoods with little subprime exposure are holding on very well, while prices have fallen in neighborhoods with a wide prevalence of subprime loans because more foreclosed properties are being sold at discounted prices.

  • Yun pointed out that homeowners with subprime loans account for less than 10 percent of all homeowners. Even so, subprime mortgages account for more than half of all foreclosures. Sharp price declines are principally in neighborhoods where subprime lending has been widely prevalent.

  • Inventories have stabilized and mortgage availability is beginning to improve, so we expect overall prices to go positive during the second half of the year.

  • NAR President Richard Gaylord, a broker with RE/MAX Real Estate Specialists in Long Beach, Calif., said the U.S. market is very dynamic. “It’s more important than ever to examine what’s happening with home prices at the city and neighborhood level,” Gaylord said. “The old real estate mantra of ‘location’ is perhaps more relevant today than ever before. Consumers should check with REALTORS for local expertise on what’s going on in their own area because conditions can vary considerably from one neighborhood to the next.”

 

 

Median Sales Prices of Existing Single_Family Home for Metropolitan Areas

 

2007 —  $217.900

2006 —  $221.900

2005 —  $219.000

 

 

1Q – 2008 – $196.300

(falling by -7.66% from $212.6 in the same quarter a year ago)

from

4Q – 2007 – $205.700

(falling by -5.9% from $219 in the same quarter a year ago)

from

3Q – 2007 – $220.300

from

2Q – 2007 –  $223.500

from

1Q – 2007 –  $212.600

from

4Q – 2006 –  $219.00

from

4Q – 2001 – $157.000

 

 

 

The national median normally is a typical market price, where half of the homes sold for more and half sold for less. A proportionately larger slowdown in home sales from a year ago in high-cost markets is continuing to drag down the aggregate national median price. In the  1Q – 2008 – the median existing single-family home price was  $196.300 (falling by -7.66% from $212.600 in the same quarter a year ago) , the biggest decline in at least 29 years, as values tumbled in two- thirds of U.S. cities, from 4Q – 2007 – $205.700 (falling by -5.9% from $219.000 in the same quarter a year ago)

Despite the annual decline in the quarter national median existing single-family home price, the typical seller who purchased their home six years ago still saw a very healthy equity gain despite a price drop from a year ago. The typical home buyer today plans to own that property for 10 years, and with that kind of long-term view most people will do quite well. The median increase in value for sellers who purchased that home in the who purchased that home in the 1Q of 2002 ($158,600) is 23.8%, and the median home equity accumulation is $37,700. The median increase in value for sellers who purchased that home in the 4Q of 2001 ($157.000) is +25.0%, and the median home equity accumulation is $39,300.

In the first quarter, 48 out of 149 metropolitan statistical areas showed higher median existing single-family home prices from a year earlier, 100 had price declines and one was unchanged. NAR’s track of metro area home prices dates back to 1979.

 

 

 

Regionally, the median existing single-family home price in the first quarter:

 

In the Northeast rose 3.2 percent – from the same period in 2007 – to $280,000. After Binghamton, the strongest price increase in the Northeast was in Elmira, N.Y., at $82,500, up 9.6 percent from the first quarter of 2007, followed by Glens Falls, N.Y., with a median price of $163,100, up 7.7 percent.

In the South, was $164,200, down 7.5 percent from a year earlier. After Spartanburg, the strongest price increases in the South were three areas in Texas: El Paso, at $134,600, up 8.5 percent from a year ago, followed by the Amarillo area with an 8.2 percent gain to $122,200, and Beaumont-Port Arthur, at $122,900, up 6.1 percent.

In the Midwest declined 7.9 percent to $142,700 from the same period in 2007. After Peoria, the strongest metro price increases in the Midwest were in the Decatur area, where the median price of $79,400 was 4.2 percent higher than a year ago, and Springfield, Ill., at $172,200, also up 4.2 percent. Next was the Wichita, Kansas, area, at $112,700, up 4.0 percent from the first quarter of 2007.

In the West, was $296,300, which is 12.3 percent below a year ago. This is the area hardest hit by the slowdown in jumbo mortgage loan origination, which is just now starting to improve.The strongest metro price increase in the West was in the Yakima, Wash., area, at $148,400, up 9.0 percent from a year ago, followed by Farmington, N.M., at $190,000, up 6.3 percent, and the Salt Lake City area, at $225,700, up 3.5 percent from the first quarter of 2007.

  • In the first quarter, the largest single-family home price increase was the Binghamton, N.Y., area, where the median price of $109,700 rose 11.8 percent from a year ago. Next was Peoria, Ill., at $119,000, up 10.4 percent from the first quarter of 2007, followed by the Spartanburg, S.C., area, where the first-quarter median price increased 10.1 percent to $130,300.
  • Median first-quarter metro area single-family home prices ranged from a very affordable $65,400 in the Saginaw-Saginaw Township North area of Michigan (Other affordable markets include the Youngstown-Warren-Boardman area of Ohio and Pennsylvania at $67,700, and Decatur, Ill., with a first-quarter median price of $79,400), to nearly 12 times that amount in the San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara area of California, where the median price was $780,000. The second most expensive area was San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, at $701,700, followed by Honolulu at $620,000.

 

 

 

Median Sales Prices of Existing Condo_Coops_Family Home for Metropolitan Areas

 

2007 — $226.300

2006 — $221.900

2005 — $223.000

 

 

1Q – 2008 – $216.900

(falling by -3.0% from $223.700 in the same quarter a year ago)

from

4Q – 2007 – $221.000

(falling by -0.1% from $221.200 in the same quarter a year ago)

from

3Q – 2007 – $227.000

from

2Q – 2007 – $226.900

from

1Q – 2007 – $223.700

 

 

Median Sales Price of Existing Apartment Condo-Coops Homes for Metropolitan Areas

 

 

The national median normally is a typical market price, where half of the homes sold for more and half sold for less. A proportionately larger slowdown in home sales from a year ago in high-cost markets is continuing to drag down the aggregate national median price. In the  1Q – 2008 – In the condo sector, metro area condominium and cooperative prices – covering changes in 55 metro areas – showed the national median existing-condo price was $216.900 (falling by -3.0% from $223.700 in the same quarter a year ago) from 4Q – 2007 – $221.000 (falling by -0.1% from $221.200 in the same quarter a year ago)

Twenty-three metros showed annual increases in the median condo price, 31 areas had price declines and one was unchanged.

  • Metro area median existing-condo prices in the first quarter ranged from $106,600 in Wichita (Other affordable condo markets include the Indianapolis area at $110,000 in the first quarter, and Syracuse, N.Y., at $111,100) to $546,700 in the San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont area. The second most expensive condo market reported was Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, at $343,700, followed by the New York-Wayne-White Plains, area of New York and New Jersey at $333,800.

  • The strongest condo price increases were in Bismarck, N.D., where the first quarter price of $124,900 rose 36.4 percent from a year earlier, followed by the New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner area of Louisiana, at $170,500, up 15.3 percent, and Wichita, Kan., where the median condo price of $106,600 rose 11.7 percent from the first quarter of 2007.

 

 

 

Median State Existing Single_Family and Condo_Coops Home Sales

 

2007 — 5,652

2006 — 6,478

2005 — 7,076

 

1Q – 2008 – 4,950

(falling by -22.2% from 6,363 in the same quarter a year ago) 

from

4Q – 2007 — 4,997

(falling by -20.5% from 6,263 in the same quarter a year ago) 

from

3Q – 2007 — 5,457

from

2Q – 2007 — 5,870

from

1Q – 2007 — 6,363

 

 

Total Sales: Single-Family, Apartment Condos and Co-ops

 

 

Total state existing-home sales, including single-family and condo, 1Q – 2008 – were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4,950 (falling by -22.2% from 6,363 in the same quarter a year ago) down -0.94% from 4Q – 2007 — 4,997 (falling by -20.5% from 6,263 in the same quarter a year ago).

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate on a 30-year conventional fixed-rate mortgage fell to 5.88 percent in the first quarter (the rate was 6.22 percent in the same quarter a year ago ) from 6.23 percent in the fourth quarter

 

 

NAR releases statistics on state-by-state existing-home sales and metropolitan area median home prices each quarter. The state existing-home sales report includes single-family houses, condos and co-ops. The price report reflects sales prices of existing single-family homes by metropolitan statistical area (MSA). Beginning on February 15, 2005, this quarterly report includes a breakdown of condo and co-op prices by metro market. MSAs are as defined by the U.S. Office of Management and Budget and include the specified city or cities and surrounding suburban areas.

The National Association of Realtors, The Voice for Real Estate, is America’s largest trade association, representing more than 1.2 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

 

Areas are generally metropolitan statistical areas as defined by the U.S. Office of Management and Budget. A list of counties included in MSA definitions is available at:

 

http://www.census.gov/

 

Regional median home prices include rural areas and samples of many smaller metros that are not included in this report; the regional percentage changes do not necessarily parallel changes in the larger metro areas.  The only valid comparisons for median prices are with the same period a year earlier due to seasonality in buying patterns.  Quarter-to-quarter comparisons do not compensate for seasonal changes, especially for the timing of family buying patterns.

NAR’s track of metro area single-family home prices is the largest published series of metropolitan home prices, with data available back to 1979.  The metro home price series treats all homes equally, without placing higher weights on more expensive homes as in other home price series. (See NAR Metro Area price charts.) NAR began tracking of metropolitan area median condo price series was launched at the beginning of 2006, with several years of historic data.

Because there is a concentration of condos in high-cost metro areas, the national median condo price sometimes is higher than the median single-family price.  In a given market area, condos typically cost less than single-family homes.  As the reporting sample expands in the future, additional area will be included in the condo price report.

Tables of metropolitan area median prices, percent changes and some historic data are available at the site below – under Research click on Housing Statistics, then scroll down the center to Metropolitan Area Prices.

The seasonally adjusted annual rate for a particular quarter represents what the total number of actual sales for a year would be if the relative sales pace for that quarter was maintained for four consecutive quarters.  Total home sales include single family, townhomes, condominiums and co-operative housing.  NAR began tracking the state sales series in 1981.

Seasonally adjusted rates are used in reporting quarterly data to factor out seasonal variations in resale activity.  For example, sales volume normally is higher in the summer and relatively light in winter, primarily because of differences in the weather and household buying patterns.

Tables of state resale rates, percent changes and some historic data are available at the site below under Research – click on Housing Statistics, then scroll down the center to State Existing-Home Sales.

 

Marco

 

dott. Marco Montanari

U.S. Equities Trader

mailto: marcomontanari@iol.it

 

 

 

Vedi soprattutto:

 

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The Final U.S. Growth Package

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